Alan's Blog

November 5th, 2008 5:12 PM
It didn't take long for investors to get over their euphoria of electing a new president to take a hard look at what a new Administration will soon face - a sea of red ink and a faltering economy. Money flowed out of stocks after yesterday's election day rally and today's poor economic data and moved back into bonds. Our benchmark FNMA 6.0% mortgage bond benefited with a gain of 41bp to close at $101.66. The bond has reversed its recent downward plunge to shoot 191bp higher over the past four sessions. Inter-bank lending continues to improve with the three month dollar LIBOR falling to 2.51% from 2.71% yesterday. However, the rate is still 151bp above the current 1.0% Fed funds rate for overnight bank loans compared to an average of 22bp above the Fed funds rate during the 5 years prior to the beginning of the global credit crisis. Today's economic news soured stock market sentiment with the latest Challenger Job-Cut Report indicating employers laid off 112,884 workers in October, the highest number in five years. Announced job cuts in October were 79% higher than the year ago period. The ADP Employment Report also indicated rising unemployment as private sector companies reported a cut of 157,000 jobs in October. The current consensus estimate for the Labor Department's official Jobs Report set for release this Friday is for a loss of 200,000 jobs with a rising unemployment rate of 6.3% from September's level of 6.1%. The ISM Services Index was reported at 44.4 for October vs. a consensus forecast of 47.0. According to the Commerce Dept., the services sector share of the economy has risen to about 80%. Today's reading below 50 indicates economic contraction in the largest segment of our economy. The U.S. Treasury announced its 4th quarter refunding needs and will auction $55 billion in mostly long term debt next week. There will be $25 billion in 3-year notes, $20 billion in 10-year Treasuries and $10 billion in re-opened 30-year bonds. The stock market retreated with the Dow losing 486 points to close at 9,139 while the broader S&P 500 Index gave back 52 points to end at 952. The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 98 points to finish at 1,681.

Posted by Alan McNamee on November 5th, 2008 5:12 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Pilgrim Mortgage, LLC is an equal housing lender. Interest Rates are subject to change. Interest rates are also subject to credit, income and property approval based on market guidelines. Other rates and terms are available. Contact us for details. Consult your accountant about tax deductions. These are my personal views and don't reflect those of  Pilgrim Mortgage, or it's affiliates. Pilgrim Mortgage, LLC

 


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