Alan's Blog

December 11th, 2008 4:15 PM
Our benchmark FNMA 5.0% bond reached a multi-year high of $101.90 with a 53bp gain at one point during today's session before getting hit with profit-taking to end 28bp higher at $101.56. A day of terrible economic news and a bogged down bailout bill for the Big 3 automakers in Congress forced investors to flee the stock market and seek the relative safety of bonds. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims jumped to a 26-year high with an increase of 58,000 to reach 573,000 claims vs. a consensus estimate of 525,000. The 4-week moving average increased by 14,250 to 540,500, also a 26-year high. The claims data continues to show the labor market at recessionary levels. The Labor Dept. reported Import Prices plunging by a record -6.7% during Nov. with crude oil leading the way with a record 25.8% drop. Non-oil import prices fell 1.8%, a record decline. Export Prices also fell a record amount, plunging by 3.2%. The U.S. Balance of Trade reached a greater than expected deficit of -$57.2 billion in Oct. vs. a forecast of -$53.5 billion. One outcome of the poor economic news was a sharply falling U.S. dollar against major foreign currencies such as the euro and yen. This triggered a spike in oil and gold prices with oil futures jumping by more than 12% at one point. Jan. crude oil ended $3.69 higher at $47.21/barrel while Dec. gold rose $10 to $817/oz. The Treasury re-opened a 10-year Note auction for $16 billion with an 'OK' 2.44 bid to cover ratio and a foreign participation level of 12.7%. A gloomy UCLA Anderson Economic Forecast report was released projecting a deep recession for 2009. The report forecast a 4.1% reduction in GDP for the 4th Qtr. of this year followed by 3.4% and 0.8% declines in GDP during the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2009, respectively. The report goes on to state there will be a loss of another two million jobs next year with the unemployment rate reaching 8.5%. Deflation risk will become more of a threat than inflation with lower consumer demand and plunging commodity prices. OPEC is expected to try and stop the recent record drop in oil prices by enacting a major production cut at their next meeting on Dec. 17 in Algeria. The Dow retreated 196 points to close at 8,565 while the broader S&P 500 Index lost 25 points to end at 873. The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 57 points to finish at 1,507.

Posted by Alan McNamee on December 11th, 2008 4:15 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Pilgrim Mortgage, LLC is an equal housing lender. Interest Rates are subject to change. Interest rates are also subject to credit, income and property approval based on market guidelines. Other rates and terms are available. Contact us for details. Consult your accountant about tax deductions. These are my personal views and don't reflect those of  Pilgrim Mortgage, or it's affiliates. Pilgrim Mortgage, LLC

 


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