Alan's Blog

12/3/08 Market Wrap
December 3rd, 2008 4:06 PM
It was another topsy-turvy day in the financial markets marked with plenty of volatility. Our benchmark FNMA 5.5% mortgage bond traded within a 57bp range before posting a 6bp loss to close at $101.50 while the Dow traded within a 400 point range. There was plenty of economic news for the markets to ponder - most of it 'bad.' The Fed's Beige Book summarized the country's current economic condition by stating 'Economic activity weakened across all Federal Reserve districts.' Amazingly, the Fed's report failed to make use of the term 'recession.' The Challenger Layoff report for November jumped by its highest amount in almost seven years to 181,671 from the 112,884 layoffs reported in October. The November ADP Employment Report is forecasting a drop of 250,000 jobs in the private sector, the largest drop in six years. The job loss total exceeded the consensus forecast of -200,000 jobs. However, the ADP report has the dubious distinction of underestimating job losses every single month this year. Third Quarter Productivity was revised to a higher than expected 1.3% from the previously announced level of 1.1% and higher than the consensus of 0.9%. The ISM Services Index fell at a record rate in November with a plunge to 37.3% from 44.4% in October, the lowest level seen since this Index was created in 1997. The ISM Services employment sub-index dropped to 31.3% from 41.5% in October suggesting this Friday's official jobs number could be worse than the current consensus of -325,000 jobs. The chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics said the plunge in the ISM employment index is forecasting a loss of 500,000 jobs in November. If this sharply higher than expected job loss is reported on Friday we should see an ensuing rally in bonds. The stock market managed to discount all of the day's dismal economic news to score modest gains. The Dow added 172 points to close at 8,591. The broader S&P 500 Index gained 21 points to finish at 870 and the NASDAQ Composite Index tacked on 42 points to end at 1,492.

Posted by Alan McNamee on December 3rd, 2008 4:06 PMPost a Comment (0)

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